Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Shoots of Recovery???

Home prices up, first in 34 months, Case Shiller
U.S. home prices rose on a monthly basis for the first time since July 2006, according to the national Case-Shiller home price index released Tuesday. On a month-to-month basis, prices in 20 selected cities rose 0.5% in May, with gains in 13 cities. "This could be an indication that home price declines are finally stabilizing," said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee for Standard & Poor's, which compiles the Case-Shiller index. Sales slipped 0.9% in April. On a year-to-year basis, prices in 20 selected cities fell 17.1%. This is a slower pace of decline than the 18.1% drop in April.

Recession less severe in early summer, Beige Book
The U.S. economic recession seems to becoming less severe as the summer progresses, according to the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book report released Wednesday. While still weak, some regions reported that the pace of the downturn had moderated. Other regions said that activity had begun to stabilize. The Beige Book is designed to give Fed officials a "feel" for conditions on the ground. The report said retail sales remained sluggish, contacts in the factory sector saw a turnaround on the horizon and bank lending was flat or weakening. Perhaps the most significant development is that businesses across the country are finding creative ways to cut wages and benefits. Economists note that as long as wages are under pressure, the threat of deflation remains. Labor market conditions remain slack, the report said.

Q2 GDP falls 1.0%, shallower than past 6 months
The U.S. economy contracted at a much smaller rate than in the past six months, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Real gross domestic product fell at a 1.0% annualized rate in the second quarter, compared with an average 5.9% drop over the past two quarters. However, this is the fourth straight quarter with a contraction in GDP. This has never happened before since records began in 1947. The big story for the second quarter was in the much smaller decrease in business investment, exports and inventories. There was also an upturn in federal and state government spending. The government also released comprehensive benchmark revisions to GDP data, but they did little to change the basic story of the economy.

U.S. July ISM factory index rises to 48.9%
Conditions for the nation's manufacturers continued to get better in July, the Institute for Supply Management reported Monday. The ISM index rose to 48.9% in July from 44.8% in June. The July index is the strongest since September. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by MarketWatch was for the index to rise to 46.2%. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. Below the headline, the report was strong. The data is showing that the manufacturing downturn is coming to an end. Both production and new orders rose above 50%. The ISM index has been improving slowly since hitting a low of 32.9% in December. The index was last above 50% in January 2008.

Q2 GDP falls 1.0%, shallower than past 6 months
The U.S. economy contracted at a much smaller rate than in the past six months, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Real gross domestic product fell at a 1.0% annualized rate in the second quarter, compared with an average 5.9% drop over the past two quarters. However, this is the fourth straight quarter with a contraction in GDP. This has never happened before since records began in 1947. The big story for the second quarter was in the much smaller decrease in business investment, exports and inventories. There was also an upturn in federal and state government spending. The government also released comprehensive benchmark revisions to GDP data, but they did little to change the basic story of the economy.

U.S. June factory orders rise 0.4%
Orders for U.S.-made factory goods rose 0.4% in June, outperforming expectations from Wall Street analysts, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected orders to fall 1%, following a gain of 1.1% in the prior month. Orders for durable goods fell 2.2%, an improvement from the government's prior estimate of a 2.5% drop. Orders for nondurable goods rose 2.7%. Excluding transportation equipment, new factory orders rose 2.3%. Orders for core capital goods, which are used by businesses to expand or update their productive capacity, rose for the second consecutive month, gaining 2.6% in June. Meanwhile, overall shipments rose 1.4%, following 10 consecutive months of declines. Shipments of durable goods fell 0.1% in June, and were down for 11 consecutive months, the longest streak of declines since comparable data were first published in 1992.

Job losses moderate in July Jobless rate dips to 9.4% as 247,000 nonfarm payrolls lost

Productivity rises 6.4%, fastest rate in six years
U.S. companies slashed their workers' hours in the second quarter, boosting the productivity of the workplace at an annualized rate of 6.4%, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. It was the fastest increase in productivity in the nonfarm business sector in nearly six years. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a gain of 5.4%. Unit labor costs - a key indicator of inflationary pressures - plunged at a 5.8% rate, the largest decline in nine years and a slightly larger drop that the 5.3% decline expected by economists. Hourly compensation rose just 0.2% in the second quarter.

Economy leveling out, but rates to stay low a while Fed to stop buying Treasurys in October, FOMC says

Consumer prices unchanged in July
U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in July, after seasonal adjustments, and were down 2.1% year-over-year in the sharpest annual decline since 1950, the Labor Department reported Friday. Analysts polled by MarketWatch had expected no change in the monthly consumer price index. For July, energy prices fell 0.4%, and food prices fell 0.3%, while prices rose for goods such as new vehicles, tobacco, medical care and apparel. The core CPI, which excludes often-volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.1% in July, matching analysts' expectations. Of note, shelter prices in July fell 0.2%, the largest decline since 1982, while prices for meat, poultry, fish and eggs fell 1.3%, the largest decline since 1979. In June the overall CPI rose 0.7%, while the core gained 0.2%.

Industrial production rises for first time since October Output rises 0.5% in July as auto production surges 20%

Builders' confidence inches higher in August Sentiment index rises to 18, highest in more than a year

New York factories expanding in August
Business improved for manufacturers in New York in August, according to the Empire State index released Monday by the New York Federal Reserve Bank. The index rose to 12.1 from negative 0.6 in July. It's the first positive reading since April 2008, and the highest since November 2007. Readings over zero mean most firms said business was improving compared with the prior month. Two key components of the index -- new orders and shipments -- rose to their highest levels in more than a year

Global recession over, but will leave scars: IMF

Leading indicators rise; bottom of recession seen
An economic recovery may begin soon, and the recession is bottoming out, the Conference Board said Thursday. For its fourth consecutive monthly gain, the index of leading economic indicators rose in 0.6% in July, following an upwardly revised increase of 0.8% in June. Economists polled by MarketWatch were looking for a gain of 0.7% in July. The interest rate spread was the largest positive contributor, while a reading on consumer expectations was the largest negative contributor. Overall, six of the 10 indicators were positive contributors, three were negative, and one was steady. The six-month growth rate for the overall index hit its highest level since mid-2004, according to the Conference Board.

Durable orders jump 4.9% on aircraft bookings
A doubling in aircraft bookings in July drove orders for new U.S.-made durable goods up by 4.9%, the largest increase in two years, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Excluding the 18.4% increase in transportation goods, orders rose 0.8%, the third straight gain and the longest upward streak in four years. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a 4% gain in durable-goods orders in July. Shipments for durable goods rose 2% in July after a 0.7% increase in June. Inventories fell 0.8% in July. Orders are down 26% in the first seven months of 2009 compared with the same period last year.

Consumer confidence index rises to 54.1
U.S. consumers' mood brightened considerably in August, as their expectations about the near future were the most optimistic since the recession began, the Conference Board reported Tuesday. The consumer confidence index rose to 54.1 in August from 47.4 in July. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected the index to rise to 48.0. Consumer confidence "appears to be back on the mend," said Lynn Franco, head of the consumer research center at the Conference Board. Consumers were a bit more upbeat than they were in July about current economic conditions, but were markedly sunnier about the economy and their own financial situation over the next six months.

Home prices rise for second month in a row, up 1.4% Case-Shiller index down 15.4% in the 12 months through June


Friday, August 14, 2009

Riot Act, reading of|by SueN

When we moved to the new site in March, all the people who had previously been banned were allowed back in. It was a fresh start for everybody. Unfortunately, some people, whether out of misplaced ideology, because they are paid, because it amuses them, or because they have been swept up into a gang war mentality, in practice continue to disrupt the forum far more than they contribute to it. And no, I do not consider expressing alternative views about the issues disruptive. Attacking fellow members is disruptive. Deliberately derailing threads is disruptive. And no, I do not mean normal thread drift, which is natural, particularly in a forum that welcomes ADDers!

Since I am the administrator, it comes down to my judgement, and I have decided that the time has come to weed out some of the worst ones again. The ones I ban will all have had plenty of warnings, either on this board or a previous one, and will have been continuing to disrupt.

As for everyone else, thanks very much for sticking with us, and please take this opportunity to focus on the very important issues that we have facing us, or to relax in the lounge. Please ignore any disrupters who are left.
Actually Sue, you have a moderator that is disruptive to threads. You have a moderator that goes around with out any proof calling others ideological names including I was specifically called out as being a brown shirt. When he said he never called me a Chicago School of Economics ideologue, I showed him that he specifically did call me that.

If you want to run your kingdom like that, that is fine. I did nothing more than what your own administrator have done continually on a daily basis. And he was the one that went around with "If the shoe fits wear it."

I just have one question for you. When I used the alert button after being told to use it for years, why was it that you came down on me and told me to correct myself when your Libtarded friends were allowed all the leeway including your "Editor" of Monkville?

If you wanted a growing community, then just thank Thom for his ineptitude on managing the boards. Including changing software so many times and then picking stupid ideological constrained individuals that are more than happy to parade around as idiots. The height of Thom's followers was when I noticed he had 10,000 members. A thread I started and devolved into complete character assassinations. Now how many does Thom have?

Thom, Sue. Just get one thing straight. NO ONE, I MEAN NO ONE IS PAID TO BE THERE!!!
That truly was a sad day when Thom started accusing board members of that. Also the day that Mrs. Hartmann started talking about members penis size, but that is for another day.

NP with me, Thom. It only shows that the left is just as intolerant as what they portray the right as being-which is still in question.

Good luck, Sue, Thom and Monk with no brain.

Ron Rutherford
PS: I will be back!!!
PSS: What happened
It is based solely on marginal utility functions and when Thomland no longer provides the same or more utility than the next possible function then I will move along or change. Not sooner or later.
What utility does it provide?
I have answered this many times before. Basically it goes back to the posts about how I "win" every discussion because I learn more in the process. Recently, I was looking at some development theories including what Warren Huntsinger had presented on Jane Jacobs.


Thursday, August 13, 2009

Open letter to Thom

Dear Thom:

Basically your moderator Polycarp2 has gone off the ranch.

He first started to edit out disses in posts and that basically was one sided and still is. Personal attacks from the left are consistently left while even innocuous ones like "Dodge" are deleted. Also it does not even show that Poly has edited a post unless he states it as such and that is not every time. For example in the thread:
No Dissing here...Move along|Warren
He even is dissing again without recourse.But when some major "dissing" was pointed out, he was slow to respond and only did it after a new thread was started.
#1 No "Dissing" allowed
In which case he just deleted everything.
But even the fact of opening up new threads with posts out of context was his initiative. He decided to single out some conservative voices for public ridicule by quoting them out of context without even a link to the original conversations. And when people did include the link, he summarily edited it out without reason.

But when it was Poly's own prejudiced opinions, he insisted that the link be provided. He even edited the original post to make it look like the new poster had altered the original. Which of course was against any "TOS" that Thom has had. Grounds for people being banned. Are you going to ban Poly?
Brown Shirts|Stereo-Types|Poly
Is that acceptable to call others Nazis, Brown Shirts, etc?
Alter his own original posts to cover himself?

Thom, I know this will be hard to believe, but NOBODY gets paid to be on your forum. I know nearly all the "conservatives" there and none get paid to post on your BB. You have started rumors yourself and have no proof of it. Thus it becomes fodder for the Progressives to use that Dis at nearly every opportunity.

Sue has even allowed personal information about me to first be open to the public and then allow that same information to be freely published on your site. Is that acceptable? The ironic thing is that she never has acknowledged the transgressions. Even now she is busy going around locking threads that clearly show disses against me without opportunity to respond and making excuse after another for the transgressions of Poly.

Poly is a polarizing figure that has clearly gone off the ranch. What you need is moderators that are not so tied to their ideological beliefs as to censor some and allowed "favorites" to ride.

Ron Rutherford
PS: This is my from work Email and you can contact me at ...

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Wednesday, August 12, 2009

jeffbliss is a dweeb.

However, contrary to such abominations, contraception/family planning is the only way that the earth's impoverished have even a remote chance of making it out of poverty. For example, China cannot feed itself and grow its economy. It must lease land in other countries to grow enough food. It must build the equivalent of one coal-fired power plant per week. China runs the Yellow River dry using the water for industry and water shortages have been reducing food yield. China is depleting the aquifer in the north, where it grows about 1/2 of its grain and 1/3 of its corn, by about 10 feet/year. The deep aquifer is a fossil aquifer, once it's depleted, it's depleted. The shallow aquifer is replenishable, once its depleted the pumping rate can only match the recharge rate.
Actually they need to be out of poverty before birth rates fall. As I said before development and then birth rates will correct themselves. As far as China cannot feed itself...
Overseas food not China's staple
China relies little on the global food market, despite its increasing openness and growing trade.

According to Cheng Guoqiang, deputy director with the institute of market economy under the Development and Research Center of the State Council, the country has witnessed an annual 11-percent increase in its food exports following its entry into the WTO in 2001, and an annual 22-percent increase in its food imports.

Between 1998 and 2001, imports grew at 3 percent a year and exports at 2 percent.

However, in recent years the value of food exports has been less than 10 percent of agriculture GDP while food imports accounted for about 10 percent of that figure, which demonstrates a low reliance on the global market.

"The percentage ratio shows that the growth in the agriculture sector is mainly driven by domestic need," Cheng said at the 11th Sino-French Seminar on Wheat held yesterday in Kunming.

The agricultural outputs and the land areas of the two countries are similar, but China has a much larger labor force employed in agriculture and most of its population lives in rural areas (table B-1). Productivity and income of agricultural laborers in China are accordingly much lower than in the United States. China’s food share of exports is 6 percent, surprisingly high (only 2 percentage points less than the land-abundant United States) for a country with limited land resources. Its food imports are just 4 percent of total imports.
Surprisingly Self-Sufficient in Food
For a country with nearly 1.3 billion consumers and limited natural resources, China’s level of food imports is surprisingly low. China is nearly self-sufficient in food and is a major net exporter of many food products, including manufactured food and beverages, animal products, vegetables, fish and seafood, tea, and fruits (table B-2). China’s agricultural exports go primarily to neighboring Asian countries, including Japan and South Korea, which are also among the top markets for U.S. agricultural products. {From the PDF at:}

And as far as grow its economy you might want to check out: GDP growth 1952-2008. Again continuing with the paper:
Poor, But Not Hungry
China has a rising urban middle class with world-class consumption standards, but it is still largely a poor country. Its per capita GDP is similar to those of developing countries, such as the Philippines and Sri Lanka.1 In 2000, China’s urban residents spent an average of $236 per person on food, and rural expenditures were even lower, at $56. Farm families, which still make up the bulk of China’s population, grow much of the food they consume.

Food insecurity, however, is not a problem for most of China’s population. China’s per capita food supply, measured by calories per person per day, was 8 percent above the world average in 1999 (fig. B-2). Famine and food insecurity were common in China’s past, but food consumption and food availability have soared since economic reforms began in the late 1970s.

Growth of the agricultural sector is important when we consider balanced growth strategies and makes development that much easier.

It is also worth noting that China is making a major push again to get more mechanization into the agricultural sector especially tractors as India has done in various stages also.
You're saying that we must grow the population so that the pyramid has a wide base, with a lot of youth providing for a relatively smaller number of old, rather a some sort of ovoid or diamond, with fewer youth providing for a relatively larger number of old. That won't work because we are using scarce resources and degrading/changing the environment at too great a rate. This argument is from the know-nothing economists who don't understand natural systems and misapply economic theory to them.
I think you pretty well summed up your position in ideological terms. But seriously I am not advocating a pyramid since that is no longer possible anymore. It will be at best at column that has a slight decrease in width as you go up and then at the top a pyramid but shallow starting around 60 or so. Death rates among working age people is pretty low now.

Human capital is an economic concept and has no place in ecology or environmental sciences. Economics is defined as follows:
It is a subset of sociology, anthropology, and psychology. It is wholly incapable of discussing the carrying capacity of the earth.
So far this post is just you telling me what you believe not concrete proof or analysis of facts that are agreed upon. You are doing nothing more than making declarative statements.

The link I provided was from 2008 and most articles I read indicate that China is now struggling to maintain food production. I find it amazing that anyone would profess that just because basic needs may be met that that is acceptable for those people.
It is a far cry from 'struggling' than not being able to feed their citizens. I don't even need China to be able to feed itself 100% to prove that the world has enough resources only that if China and India can feed its citizens and USA can provide the necessary shortages then the world has plenty of resources. Well I would say it is more acceptable than being chosen to leave this world involuntarily.

It isn't only about agriculture. China cannot grow enough without huge amounts of fossil fuels to keep up with the demands of its increasing population without degrading our environment. Coal-fired plants are the backbone of its growth.
That is for industrialization. Do you think they use coal on their fields?

Your children are harmed by too many people. How do you propose any of the impoverished nations nurture their vast multitudes? I suggest you look carefully at the loads most developing nations are carrying in just meeting the basic needs of their people. Most of the world's population has no hope of getting any nurturing, only in making it day to day.
You can talk about your theoretical children but I know they will be harmed unless we avoid the demographic cliff. Again you saying tripe from the Neo-Malthusians will not convince me that all the propaganda I have been exposed to for 30 years is complete garbage. When was the last famine?

IR theory? You mean international relations? If so, it is just as incapable as economics in discussing real world systems. It/they is/are a subset of the social sciences and so is capable of dealing only with human behavior. A trillion people? We have been breaking the earth's systems as we grew to this point. If we do not change, we will collapse them. While the earth may be able to sustain greater than 3 billion people, human nature indicates that it won't happen. People would have to act to minimize the harm they do and evidence indicates that we don't do that for long. As proof, look at your attitude. You believe that there's nothing to worry about. Now multiply yourself by a few billion and you can see why there's no hope.
You say it but it does not make it so.

As far as attitude, you believe that there will be world wide famine and billions will die off and how that happens is immaterial but you insist it will happen. Now multiply yourself by a few billion of divergent thinkers constantly looking for this great die-off and sure enough we might just get it.

Those that have been praying for an economic calamity has gotten one right now. Just be careful what you wish for. By the way I never said there was nothing to worry about.


Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Poly's Stupid Quotes|He is the disease.

We should be proud of our accomplishment

True. The 4% aren't "people"...just a statistic. How about changing the structures so that isn't required? Retired Monk "Ideology is a disease"

Economists are the same. They'll stick to their particular discipline whether or not the "patient" gets better or worse. If the patient doesn't get better, they'll develop a patch for the "patient" much as shock therapy is used as a patch in psychiatry. It cures nothing, and sometimes enables better functioning for awhile.

Loganthor wrote:
Actually Loganthor cut and paste an article.

We all know Europe still doesn't have basic x-ray machines

Responding to absurd data is foolish.

In the monastery, we didn't worry about excess production.

The money supply idea isn't mine. It belongs to Say, prod. cost/wages/money supply = aggregate. Money supply will equal returns to the cost of production and wages. Under our structures, that isn't the case.

Right. He thought human life was more important than the institutions human beings lived under....just like Hitler

As Posted: Right. He thought human life was more important than the institutions human beings lived under....just like Hitler :lol: Both were great defenders of human life and followed the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (a liberal ideal) to the letter

That worked in pre-war Germany. We have some of those same elements in our own society. The far right is more dangerous than people realize....using free speech to kill it.

And you have to realize than Rutherford has been a promoter of trickle down economic theory for a long, long time. Anyone disagreeing with him, including Nobel Laureates, he gives no credence to.

Most of those those who consider themselves politically active Dems seek reform, not structural change.